Aston Villa v Chelsea: Team news, odds, prediction – will Blues bounce back from Arsenal disaster?
Chelsea travel to Villa Park following a historically bad defeat to Arsenal, but with Cole Palmer returning, there is hope of a response
By Jon Turner | April 27, 2024
Four days after one of the most calamitous results in recent Chelsea history, the Blues are back in action with another tough Premier League assignment away to Aston Villa.
Unbeaten in eight league matches and following an ultimately disappointing FA Cup semi-final defeat where Chelsea outplayed Manchester City for much of the game, there was a decent amount of optimism that we could deliver a firm kick in the nuts to Arsenal’s title hopes.
However, injuries to Cole Palmer and Malo Gusto – our two standout players this season – proved too much to overcome. Mauricio Pochettino urged his players to step up in top-scorer Palmer’s absence, demanding they show this is “Chelsea FC, not Cole Palmer FC.”
By the end of a disastrous 90 minutes at Emirates Stadium, his advice had not been heeded. Nervy, disjointed, and lacking fight throughout the Blues succumbed to a dreadful 5-0 defeat. To make matters worse, summer departure Kai Havertz was a chief tormentor with two goals.
The anger aimed at Pochettino reached new levels in the days that followed as calls from the fans for his sacking grew louder and more vociferous.
The focus, however, must now turn to Villa Park. Chelsea are still firmly in the hunt for a European place but time and opportunities are running out. A defeat to Villa – flying in fourth amid their best season in 28 years – would represent another major setback.
Chelsea team news
Surprise, surprise … more injuries! Enzo Fernandez is out for the rest of the season after undergoing hernia surgery, while Raheem Sterling and Carney Chukwuemeka are short-term absentees after sustaining back and knee issues respectively.
“The moment Enzo felt pain and limitations because of the problem, the most important thing was to fix the situation for him,” Pochettino said.
On Raheem and Carney, the manager added: “Sterling suffered pain in his lower back and Carney felt something in his knee, related to his problem before. We hope it’s not a big issue and he can be back as soon as possible.”
Some positive news is that Reece James and Levi Colwill have returned to squad training, but neither the captain or centre-back are ready to be available to face Villa.
However, in a massive boost, Palmer is back and will play after missing the Arsenal defeat with illness.
“Cole has trained well in the past two days,” the manager said. “We assume he will be ready for tomorrow’s game and be part of the squad.”
The following remain sidelined: Christopher Nkunku (in partial team training), Robert Sanchez (in partial team training), Lesley Ugochukwu (in partial team training), Ben Chilwell (undergoing rehabilitation programme), Malo Gusto (undergoing rehabilitation programme), Wesley Fofana (continuing to undergo his rehabilitation programme), Romeo Lavia (continuing to undergo his rehabilitation programme).
As for Aston Villa, Unai Emery will have a near-full strength squad to call upon. Tyrone Mings, Emi Buendia, Jacob Ramsey, Boubacar Kamara, Alex Moreno and Nicolo Zaniolo are absent.
Recent head-to-head meetings
Chelsea have had the upper hand in this fixture in recent years. In the past 10 meetings in all competitions, Chelsea have won five, drawn two, and lost three.
However, Villa are a completely different team under Emery and have beaten Chelsea in both of their Premier League games under the Spaniard, winning 2-0 at Stamford Bridge in April last season and 1-0 in September, courtesy of an Ollie Watkins goal.
The Blues, however, will take plenty of confidence from the teams’ most recent meeting when they dominated Villa 3-1 at Villa Park in the FA Cup fourth-round replay in February.
Recent form
As these previews have stated every week, inconsistency continues to plague Chelsea. An eight-match unbeaten run in the league came to an embarrassing end with the 5-0 pasting at Arsenal on Tuesday.
That defeat was the first time the Blues failed to score in 16 league games and came after the best performance of the season – the 6-0 demolition of Everton.
From 32 matches played, Chelsea have won 13, drawn eight, and lost 11. Away from home, the Blues have won five, drawn four, and lost seven.
Villa have been in good form all season – hence why they’re on course for the Champions League. The Villains have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last 10 league games, and welcome Chelsea to Villa Park following successive wins, including an excellent 2-0 victory at Arsenal.
Key stats – Chelsea v Everton
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Chelsea have won seven of their last nine visits to Villa Park in the Premier League
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The last four meetings in all competitions between Chelsea and Villa have been won by the away side
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Chelsea’s last seven league matches have averaged five goals per game
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The Blues have conceded 57 Premier League goals this season – a club record with six matches still remaining
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Chelsea have won only one of their past eight league games outside of London (D2, L5)
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Villa are aiming to complete their first league double over Chelsea since 1989/90
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Villa are unbeaten in five home games in all competitions (W4 D1)
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Ollie Watkins has scored in his last two league games against Chelsea – he needs one more goal to become the first Villa player to reach 20 in a top-flight league season since Peter With (1980/81)
Match odds
Villa are the slight odds-on favourites to win the match and are priced at 10/11. Fans backing Chelsea for victory can get them at 2/1, while the draw is priced at 21/10.
Best bets to consider
Watkins and Palmer have been two of the standout players of the season, with both providing goals and assists for their teams. Watkins (19) sits one goal behind Palmer in the race for the Golden Boot, but the Villa striker leads the assist charts with 12 (Palmer has nine).
We can therefore expect both players to be centrally involved on Saturday evening. Ollie Watkins to have a shot on target and be fouled is available on Betfair at 4/5. While the same bet for Cole Palmer offers odds of 11/10.
Another player bet that looks tempting is Conor Gallagher and Douglas Luiz to commit 2+ fouls at 5/2. Gallagher is likely to be playing deeper in the absence of Fernandez, while Luiz returns to the Villa side and will be in the thick of the action.
For a longer-odds bet, take a look at Chelsea to score 2+ goals and have 6+ corners at 5/1. The Arsenal game aside, the Blues have not had any problems in recent weeks scoring in the Premier League, so if the game opens up, this could be an attractive bet.
Match prediction
We really don’t know what to expect from this Chelsea team in any given week. Logic would suggest that this young and experienced squad have been rattled by the defeat to Arsenal and should be there for the taking by a strong and stable Villa side.
That said, we might just see a positive response and the Blues can take plenty of positives from their last visit to Villa Park. The return of Palmer can’t be overstated, and with his presence in the team, Chelsea should have genuine belief they can take something from this game.
