Arsenal v Chelsea: Team news, odds and prediction – can Blues cope without Palmer?
Chelsea head to the Emirates on Tuesday for a massive Premier League game, but they will face their rivals without their best player
By Jon Turner | April 22, 2024
Three days after the dispiriting FA Cup semi-final exit to Manchester City, Chelsea are back in action with a mouth-watering Premier League trip across the city to Arsenal.
For the second time this season, the Blues were made to pay for their Wembley wastefulness.
After somehow losing to a depleted Liverpool side in the League Cup final, it was a similar story against a jaded City team on Saturday when Nicolas Jackson missed three golden chances that were easier to score.
Instead, a late Bernardo Silva goal sent City through to the final and left Chelsea to pick up the pieces from another disappointment in a season filled with far too many of them.
But there is no time to dwell as the Blues head to the Emirates on Tuesday evening with very real Premier League targets to chase.
A victory will propel Chelsea up to seventh in the table and a more-than-likely place in the Europa Conference League next season. It will also move us level on points with Newcastle in sixth and a possible Europa League slot.
A draw, meanwhile, will still be enough to edge ahead of eighth-placed West Ham on goal difference while still having two games in hand on the Hammers.
However, we are a long way from the recent dominance Chelsea enjoyed over Arsenal for many years; 27 points separate the two clubs and the Gunners are right in the mix to end their 20-year title drought.
Chelsea team news
The big news to come out of Mauricio Pochettino’s press conference on Monday concerned Cole Palmer. Chelsea’s star player is suffering from illness and has missed training the past few days, with the manager admitting a late call will be made on his fitness.
“We need to assess tomorrow (Tuesday) morning but today I don’t believe he can be involved,” Pochettino said. “Even if he is feeling better tomorrow, maybe he is not in a condition to play. We hope he recovers from this situation and can be involved again as soon as possible.”
If Palmer misses out, it’ll be a massive blow to a team that has been reliant on his goals, assists, and overall brilliance this season. Palmer has scored 20 Premier League goals to join Erling Haaland at the front of the Golden Boot race, while also registering nine assists.
However, Pochettino has called on his squad to step up in Palmer’s absence.
“With or without Cole we always believe we can win. The most important thing is the team and the collective. He is an important part of the team and is doing fantastic for us, but we are Chelsea and we have plenty of players that can perform and do the job.”
To make matters worse, Palmer’s partner-in-crime on the right flank is also a serious doubt. Malo Gusto, arguably our second-best player this season, picked up a knee ligament injury against City and was replaced in the 79th minute.
“I am not a doctor but I try to translate what is going on,” Pochettino said. “Malo suffered a problem with a ligament in his knee, we hope it’s not a big issue.”
In better news, Christopher Nkunku has returned to partial team training and could play some part on Tuesday, although that will be from the bench. Robert Sanchez and Lesley Ugochukwu are also back in partial team training.
Ben Chilwell is absent again and is undergoing medical assessment, while Levi Colwill, Wesley Fofana, Reece James, and Romeo Lavia are all long-term absentees.
Arsenal have a near full-strength squad available, with right-back Takehiro Tomiyasu the only doubt after picking up a knock in the Champions League defeat to Bayern Munich.
Fellow full-back Jurrien Timber is a long-term absentee and despite getting some minutes with the Under-23s, is unlikely to feature for the first team against Chelsea.
Recent head-to-head meetings
Long gone are the days when Chelsea used to dominate this fixture. Between March 2004 and January 2020, the two teams met each other 44 times in all competitions; the Blues won 22, drew 12, and lost 10.
In recent years, the fixture hasn’t been so kind. The last 10 games in all competitions have seen Chelsea win just two, draw two, and lose six. In the Premier League, the Blues have lost three of their last four to Arsenal – the one draw coming earlier this season at Stamford Bridge.
That game encapsulated much about the current Chelsea. Leading 2-0 through a Palmer penalty and Mykhailo Mudryk, we looked on course for victory until Declan Rice scored in the 77th minute. The team then folded under pressure and had to settle for a 2-2 draw when Leandro Trossard scored with six minutes remaining.
Recent form
Inconsistency continues to be the central theme to Chelsea’s recent form. Draws have followed wins in our last six league games, meaning the Blues have not won back-to-back Premier League matches since winning three in a row between December 27 and January 13.
Chelsea’s last league outing was their finest performance of the season – the 6-0 demolition of Everton – but that was followed by Saturday’s frustrating FA Cup final defeat to City.
Perhaps encouragingly is the decent record against the top-three this season; the Blues have played five league games against Arsenal, City, and Liverpool and drawn four, only losing at Anfield.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have been in sensational form since the turn of the year, winning 11 of 13 matches including eight in a row. Their run was checked by a 2-0 home defeat to Aston Villa nine days ago but they bounced back on Saturday with a 2-0 win at Wolves.
Mikel Arteta’s side have scored more and conceded fewer goals than any team in the division.
Key stats – Chelsea v Everton
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Chelsea are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games (W4, D4) and have scored at least two goals in each of their last six league games. It is the club’s longest unbeaten run since January-March 2021 (10 games)
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Chelsea have won just one of their last eight Premier League matches against Arsenal and have not beaten the Gunners in the last four. The current four-match winless run is Chelsea’s longest against Arsenal since a 19-game streak back in 1995-2005.
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Mauricio Pochettino has never won an away Premier League game at the Emirates Stadium as manager, drawing four and losing three of his seven games as Tottenham and Southampton manager.
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Chelsea have conceded 27 away Premier League goals this season – their most after 15 away games since 1990/91.
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Chelsea are aiming for back-to-back league clean sheets for the first time since three in a row in January and February 2023. They have not kept any away clean sheets in their past 12 league matches.
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Arsenal winger Buyako Saka has been involved in more Premier League London derby goals than any other player since the start of last season: 17 (eight goals, nine assists).
Match odds
Arsenal are the comfortable favourites to beat Chelsea and are priced at 4/11 to win with Betfair. The Blues are long outsiders to win at 5/1, with the draw priced at 3/1.
Best bets to consider
Match result bets can be left well alone. No one wants to bet against their own team, and given Chelsea’s wild inconsistency, it’s too difficult to accurately predict the outcome anyway.
The handicap on Chelsea +1 at 9/5 is a bet I like the look of. The Blues have been a lot of solid defensively in the last two games with a clean sheet against Everton and limiting City to few chances and just one goal.
The structure of the team is definitely improving and their threat on the counter means they should be good for at least one goal, even without Palmer. That means Arsenal would need to win 3-1 or 4-2 for this bet not to come in.
Another bet that’s caught my attention is Gabriel Martinelli to have 2+ shots on target at 8/5. With no Malo Gusto or Reece James at right-back, Arsenal will be looking to target that flank and get Martinelli up against Disasi as much as possible. That should create plenty of shooting opportunities for the Brazilian.
Here’s one for the fans who like a redemption story: Nicolas Jackson to score or assist any time at 12/5. The Senegalese striker has been the topic of conversation after his costly misses against City, but there are two important factors to consider for why this looks like a nice bet.
1) He got himself into plenty of good goalscoring positions and on another day would have converted one
2) He was sensational against Everton with a goal and an assist. Jackson has always been a handful and gets involved in plenty of attacking play.
Match prediction
A tough encounter has only become tougher with the absence of Palmer and Gusto, but Chelsea have generally done well in the league against the top teams.
The defensive structure and organisation of the team have vastly improved in the last two games, so it will be a big shock if they get ripped apart, even if they are facing an impressive and in-form Arsenal side.
The Blues outplayed City for much of the FA Cup semi-final and if they can take that level of performance to the Emirates Stadium, then a draw is well within their capabilities.
